Elimination of Candidate Moves Intermediate Part 1

In the position below, White played 1.d4. A post-beginner sitting in Black's hair would likely overlook his opponent's possibilities, such as the threat of the pawn fork(2.d5). The novice might see the fork buy not the second threat(1..Bd7 2.d5 Na5 3.b4!). Instead, he spends a lot of time focused on his own candidates, such as 1...Nxe4. And he rarely considers the consequences of his moves.
Improving Amateurs- Players in the next level avoid the mistakes of their past. They rarely put pieces en prise and they recognize most enemy threats. They can recognize a candidate as being "obvious." They look for a second candidate, even if the first one seems to be good. But the most important attribute of the improving amateur is that he has advanced to the second and third stages of move selection. He does not just pick candidates but also tries to analyze and evaluate the consequences of a candidate: " If I go there, what happens if he goes there?" He can calculate simple forcing sequences, such as 1. Re8+ Rxe8 2.Rxe8 mate for a last-rank matting combination. He can also evaluate simple positions with some accuracy.
However, his analysis is badly flawed in non-forcing situations. He guesses at the move his opponent will play, rather than find the move that would be most damaging to him.

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